Monthly Archives: September 2010

Wicked problems.

The future’s problems – at least the ones that matter – are wicked. Today’s young people use this word for emphasis. Go on the streets or hangout in coffee shops and you can catch phrases like, “that car is wicked … Continue reading

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Tackling the future? It’s more than just facing our problems.

Once on a plane flight from DC to Raleigh-Durham, I happened to sit next to an associate dean for minority admissions at Duke. It turned out he was a former football player. He told me his story. “In high school,” … Continue reading

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Tackling the future.

Years ago, when I was in high school, football players in western Pennsylvania industrial towns didn’t wear face masks. (Talk about social change and technology advance!) Our football coach was Clarke T. “Ted” Miller. He would say, “Give me a … Continue reading

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Prediction 5. In the future, command-and-control top-down decisions and actions will be increasingly ineffective.

A few days have passed since the last post. In part this is because my wife and I took some time off for a visit with my mother, who will be ninety years old this coming December. We had a … Continue reading

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Prediction 4. We will face declining margins and greater scarcity.

Sure, the human race is on a roll. But can we keep it up? In my life I’ve run a couple of marathons. To prepare has meant a lot of running. Jogging might be a better term. Come to think … Continue reading

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Prediction 3. The future will be punctuated by acute, highly-localized pollution episodes.

Love Canal dioxins. The Minamata mercury spill. PG&E’s leak of Chromium VI into Hinkley, CA groundwater. DDT. PCB’s. Other endocrine disruptors. The Bhopal Union-Carbide methyl isocyanate leak. Acid rain. Three Mile Island. Chernoybl. Whew! What a tragic list! And like … Continue reading

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Prediction 2. Hazards will prove more dangerous and disruptive than we expect.

The tremendous success of the human race over the past century or so – our rapid population growth, increased resource use per capita, and great scientific and technological advance and social change – makes this a virtual certainty. Why? Several … Continue reading

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Prediction 1. The future will be characterized by adverse climate shifts.

Today, let’s start with a bit of review. The last several posts have argued that: On the skin of the Earth’s surface, much of the business that is transacted is accomplished through extreme events. The solid Earth, the atmosphere, and … Continue reading

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The human race is on a roll (Part 2). Metamorphosis!

The human race is on a roll. Our numbers are up, dramatically. So is our rate of resource use per capita. And change is in the air. The pace of innovation is picking up. Social change is accelerating. Tame words! … Continue reading

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The human race is on a roll.

A lot of people question this. Why? Their reasons vary all over the map, but share a bit of this flavor: in many respects, they don’t see much to like about the present world and our lives. They see too … Continue reading

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