Search Results for: butterfly effect

The butterfly effect … and this week’s AMS Washington Forum

Google the phrase “butterfly effect,” and you’ll learn this term describes sensitivity to initial conditions in chaotic systems. A little pointy-headed? A tiny bit abstract? Not at all. One familiar and important example: Earth’s weather. We owe the phrase and … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Lorenz’ butterfly.

Be the change you want to see in the world. – Gandhi In their hearts humans plan their course, but the LORD establishes their steps. – Proverbs 16:9 (NIV) Had a meeting in D. C. last week – my first … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

Acknowledge the Lorenz butterfly…but don’t blame it.

This past week the news media have been abuzz about Senator Joe Manchin and his stance on climate change legislation. Much of that coverage lays the blame for America’s struggles to cope with climate change on his shoulders. Only a … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

The Certainty Trap: weekend reflections on The Primacy of Doubt

“You lye, you are not sure; for I say, Woman, ’tis impossible to be sure of any thing but Death and Taxes.” – Toby Guzzle, a character in a play The Cobbler of Preston, by Christopher Bullock (1716) (“Nothing is … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment

Takeaways from yesterday’s Global Climate Strike

“There go my people. I must follow them, for I am their leader[1]” – Alexandre Auguste Ledru-Rollin Populism – a political approach that strives to appeal to ordinary people who feel that their concerns are disregarded by established elite groups–is in the … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

Chaos at fifty… and Mother’s Day

Chaos: When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future. – Edward Lorenz The May 2013 issue of Physics Today contains an interesting article on this subject, taking us back to that time … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments

Consequential weather

For want of a nail the shoe was lost. For want of a shoe the horse was lost. For want of a horse the rider was lost. For want of a rider the message was lost. For want of a … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

Daniel Kahneman – and the rest of us: a perspective informed by Ecclesiasticus.

A final postscript on Daniel Kahneman. Last week I had lunch with my economist friend of more than half a century (he of the  LOTRW previous post’s footnote in reference to Milton Friedman). We were discussing Kahneman and – in … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment

AMS second-century countdown. Five new starts

The American Meteorological Society’s 2020 Annual Meeting– our 100th– is underway. A record number of attendees – more than 5000 – are gathering in Boston for the occasion. But the Centennial itself is the tip of the iceberg. Years of planning … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Ed Lorenz chats up three caterpillars.

(Exercising a smidgen of creative license) In 1961, Ed Lorenz went for a brief walk on the MIT campus while waiting for the computer to run a recalculation. He happened to spot three caterpillars making their way across the quad. … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment