“Well done is better than well said.” – Benjamin Franklin
“What you do speaks so loudly that I cannot hear what you say.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson
“Action speaks louder than words but not nearly as often.” – Mark Twain
At the close of COP30, the general reaction was dismay. A sample:
Oil Producers, but Maybe Not the Planet, Get a Win as Climate Talks End.
U.N. climate talks fizzle out 10 years after Paris accord.
China Offers Panda Totes, but No New Commitments, at Climate Talks.
The target of the criticism – the Belem Declaration on Hunger, Poverty, and Human-Centered Climate Action – made no mention of the threat posed by fossil-fuel use; did not provide a timetable for its broad elimination, as the Brazilian host had hoped; abandoned the aspiration of the 2015 Paris agreement to hold global warming to 1.50C.
Some brighter aspects to the picture? The assembled nations were able to reach an agreement, however weak. Countries agreed to triple the funding available for climate adaptation. There was a shared awareness of the challenges that remain. A statement by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterrez (short; worth reading in its entirety) provides a more nuanced assessment.
Related efforts at international environmental cooperation seem to be faring little better. Two dialogs are stalled: the International Marine Organization negotiations on reducing shipping emissions, and the work of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastic Pollution.
Any reason for hope lies in a different direction. Now that the COP30 participants have returned home, what will nations, institutions – and eight billion people – do?
Here the picture is brighter. Three aspects deserve a look: the world writ large; China; and the United States.
The EU, and many smaller nations. At COP30, apart from the petrostates, nations generally supported accelerated progress towards renewables. Some eighty countries (though slightly less than a majority) sought detailed, firm plans to move away from fossil fuels. Brazil (the meeting host, who had hoped for but failed to achieve this outcome from COP30) announced it would lead this contingent to continue work to develop timelines.
China. China was criticized for its failure to step up and fill a leadership gap left by the pointed official absence of the United States. But China didn’t really need to make dramatic promises. Other nations tacitly acknowledge Chinese leadership. Given the facts on the ground, there’s little other choice: China currently produces about 80% of global solar panels and 60-80% of the world’s wind turbines. Though still using large amounts of coal, it is installing vast amounts of renewable power domestically, and marketing renewable power to countries across the world.
The United States. United States made headlines, and waves, by avoiding the meeting, joining Afghanistan and Myanmar. In September’s UN General Assembly meeting, presidential remarks characterized climate change as “a con job.” In October, the administration announced plans to lease coastal parts of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling. A few days ago, the administration announced plans to open the California coast and portions of the Florida coast to offshore drilling.
But these are more statements of position than actions. The states in question are likely to mount legal challenges. In addition, the private sector is also skeptical. Oil and gas major producers, seeing worldwide energy demand shifting way from fossil fuels, are showing caution, if not actual reluctance, in making the significant long-term investments needed to tap such new resources. US tech companies, though anticipating large energy demands to support artificial intelligence, are focusing their search on renewables and nuclear.
The conclusion? Just as the optimism about the 2015 Paris agreement may have been premature, so may the pessimism in the aftermath of Belem prove unfounded.
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A closing note, about the opening quotes. As quotes go, these appear to be accurately attributed. The first, by Benjamin Franklin, appears to be generally accepted. Quote Investigator tells us that Emerson’s original words, from his 1875 essay Social Aims, were Don’t say things. What you are stands over you the while, and thunders so that I cannot hear what you say to the contrary. The link goes on to provide word-smithed versions attributed to Emerson that appeared in later years. As for actions speak louder than words, that apparently goes back toSaint Anthony of Padua, who in the 13th century said Actions speak louder than words; let your words teach and your actions speak. Lincoln apparently used the short phrase in 1856 as his guide to interpret the intent of the southern U.S. states. Mark Twain indeed seems to have provided the added twist.